“Regional carbon budgets and rapid transition to a fossil free energy system” was a 4-year reseacrch project (2019-2024) funded by the Swedish Energy Agency. The project’s aim was to create new knowledge that could facilitate Sweden’s transition to a 100% fossil-free energy system, in line with the commitments enshrined in the Paris Agreement.
The project was run by Isak Stoddard and Kevin Anderson.
The three main goals of the project were:
1) To have developed a national carbon budget within the framework of the Paris Agreement’s temperature and equity targets for Sweden.
2) To have developed regional carbon budgets in collaboration with the country’s county administrative boards (starting on Gotland and in Uppsala).
3) Through the new knowledge developed in the regional carbon budgets in collaboration with local and regional actors, review and propose adjustments in relation to existing roadmaps in order to facilitate rapid and profound reductions in energy use and emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement.
A final report summarizing the project and its findings can be found here.
Publications
What follows is a list of publications with short summaries of the of peer-reviewed research articles, reports, briefing notes, debate articles etc. made possible and informed by the research conducted within the project.
2023
Report: Paris-compliant carbon budgets for Sweden’s counties
(provisional, subject to updates)
Stoddard, I. & Anderson, K.
A report outlining the key findings of the research project, including an updated Paris-compliant carbon budget for Sweden as well as provisional budget for Sweden’s 21 counties (all from January 2024). As was the case in 2020, current plans and pathways are still far from delivering mitigation that would keep Sweden within its estimated carbon budget.
Report: Paris-compliant emission reductions for Sweden: heuristic narratives for guiding energy policy.
(provisional, subject to updates)
Anderson, K. & Stoddard, I.
A report building on the insights garnered throughout the research project, presenting heuristic scenarios for a set of different sectors of relevance to enable a rapid transition to a fossil-free energy system in Sweden. The narratives embedded in the scenarios raise fundamentally challenging questions about the infrastructural, technological and social changes required should Sweden attempt to stay within a Paris-compliant carbon budget range.
2022
We must disrupt Davos-culture to end decades of failure on climate.
Stoddard, I. & Anderson, K.
An opinion piece published in Climate Home News, summarizing and expanding upon the findings outlined in the peer-reviewed article (from 2021) described below.
Carbon Budget Briefing Note 1: A new set of Paris-compliant CO2-budgets for Sweden.
Anderson, K. & Stoddard, I.
A briefing note updating our estimates of a remaining Paris-compliant carbon budget for Sweden, based on new global carbon budgets as calculated by the IPCC.
What does the Paris climate change agreement mean for local policy? Downscaling the remaining global carbon budget to sub-national areas.
Kuriakose, J., Jones, C., Anderson, K. et al.
A research article published in the international peer reviewed journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, outlining approaches and key considerations for downscaling global carbon budgets to national and subnational levels.
Fel att bara fokusera på Sverige när klimatmål diskuteras.
Stoddard, I.
A response to a debate article in the Swedish daily newspaper Dagens Nyheter arguing that Sweden’s current climate targets and policy framework could be considered to be in line with the Paris Agreement.
2021
Three decades of climate mitigation: why haven’t we bent the emission curves?
Stoddard, I., Anderson, K. et al.
A review article with the project members as lead authors, engaging 21 other authors and published in the international peer-reviewed journal Annual Review of Environment and Resources. The article explores the last three decades of attempting to mitigate climate change and possible reasons as to why these have not been more successful.
2020
A factor of two: How the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways.
Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & Stoddard, I.
An original research article published in the international peer-reviewed journal Climate Policy, that presents a new method for downscaling global carbon budgets to the national level. A Paris-compliant carbon budget for Sweden is estimated, highlighting how current plans and policy frameworks fall far short of the mitigation required by Sweden’s and other industrialized nations’ international commitments.
Beyond a climate of comfortable ignorance.
Anderson, K. & Stoddard, I.
An opinion piece published in The Ecologist, building on the findings of the peer-reviewed article just described above.
Even climate progressive nations fall far short of adopting Paris-compliant pathways.
Anderson, K., Broderick, J. & Stoddard, I. (20
A short summary of the peer-review article described above published in Climate Strategies.
Vilseledande och missvisande myter om klimatkompensation.
Co-written by 23 authors, including Stoddard, I., Anderson, K.
A debate article in the Swedish daily newspaper Dagens Nyheter arguing against the use of offsetting as a way to deliver on the increasingly challenging emissions reductions implied by the Paris agreement.
10 myths about net-zero targets and carbon offsetting, busted.
Co-written by 41 authors, including Stoddard, I., Anderson, K.
A translated and revised version of the above-mentioned debate article published in Climate Home News.
Further resources and information:
Klimatsekretariatet
The non-profit organisation Klimatsekretariatet works with Swedish municipalities, counties and regions to develop, visualize and update regional carbon budgets, in close collaboration with the latest research on carbon budgets: www.klimatsekretariatet.se
Carbon Budget conference
An annual conference on the science and politics of carbon budgets has been organized by CEMUS/Uppsala university, Klimatriksdagen and Klimatsekretariatet: www.co2-budget.com
For more information on any of the above, contact: isak.stoddard[a]geo.uu.se